F-105 土业园地 （第 105 期） 2011.6.20
Field for Artificial Soil Technology （ AST ） （№ 105 ）
作者：李鹏飞 Author ： Li Pengfei June 20, 2011
My Web ： www.tuyelt.com Telephone Number ： 13043864167 |
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| 粮食自给是粮食安全的基础，粮食自给率是衡量粮食安全最重要的硬性指标。中国是世界第一人口大国更是如此。 1998 年我国产粮 5.12 亿吨，实现了粮食自给有余，这是一个历史性的胜利。然而，事情的发展不尽人意，自从 1999 年我国开始成为净粮食进口国以来，粮食自给率不断下降，“十一五”提出确保粮食自给率在 95% 以上，到“十二五”就没有再提及粮食自给率。 2010 年我国产粮 5.46 亿吨，这又是一个历史性的胜利，但是，这 12 年间我国至少新增 1.2 亿人口 , 欠年的帐丰年必须补上 , 我国的粮食还是不能自给。假设我国的粮食自给率为 90% ，那末中国大陆将有 1.34 亿人口的吃饭问题依赖进口，这相当于一个日本或者俄罗斯。我国的粮食安全形势不容乐观，现在是和平时期，我们可以进口粮食，如果发生战争或者世界性的饥荒我们怎么办。 |
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| Self-sufficiency in grain is the basis of grain security and the grain self-sufficiency rate is the most important mandatory target for balancing grain security. It is even so for China , the country with the largest population in the world. In 1998, our grain output was 512 million tons, realizing a surplus in grain sufficiency, which was a historic victory. However, things did not turn out satisfactory all the way. Since 1999 when we became a net grain importing country, our self sufficiency rate has been declining. During the 11 th five year plan period, it was put forward that the grain self sufficiency rate would be maintained at over 95%. During the 12 th five year plan period, the issue was not brought up any more. In 2010, our grain output reached 546 million tons, which was another historic success. But during the last 12 years, the population of China has at least increased by 120 million. The surplus in rich harvest years has to make up for the deficit in the poor harvest years, so self sufficiency in grain is still a problem in China . Suppose the self sufficiency rate in China is 90%, then Chinese mainland will have 134 million people who will have to depend on imported food. The number of such a population equals to another Japan or Russia . The grain security situation is not very optimistic. We are now in an era of peace, we can import grain, but what will we do if a war or worldwide famine breaks out? |
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