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F-113 土业园地 (第 113 期) 2011.8.15
Field for Artificial Soil Technology AST (№ 113 )
作者:李鹏飞 Author Li Pengfei August 15, 2011
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中国农业:长期粮食不能自给
Chinese agriculture:No self-sufficiency in grain for a long time
    在我国经济的各部门中,农业是最重要也是最薄弱的一个环节,一个不争的事实是我国的农业,将长期处于粮食不能自给状态。 2010 年我国产粮 5.46 亿吨,比 1998 年的 5.12 亿吨多出 3400 万吨,但是由于这 12 年间我国人口至少增加 1.2 亿,致使我国的粮食供求矛盾更加突出。据《人民日报》报道, 2010 年我国进口谷物及谷物粉 571 万吨 , 进口大豆 5480 万吨,进口食用植物油 687 万吨 , 按照出油率 17 ℅计算 , 相当于再进口 4041 万吨大豆。把这 3 个数字相加, 2010 年我国进口粮食总量相当于 1 亿零 92 万吨。 2010 年我国出口粮食总量不大。我国曾经是玉米出口大国, 2003 年为 1600 万吨 ,2004 年为 800 万吨,而 2010 年我国要进口玉米 160 万吨,成为净玉米进口国。我国曾经是主要大米出口国,每年出口约 100 万吨,而 2010 年我国要从越南进口大米 60 万吨,同时,我国还要从加拿大、美国和澳大利亚进口相当数量的小麦。《中国日报》说,从 2011 年初起,中国恢复进口美国牛肉,对阿根廷和挪威分别开放牛肉和海产品市场。假设我国的粮食自给率为 90% ,那末中国大陆将有 1.34 亿人口的吃饭问题依赖进口,这相当于一个日本或者俄罗斯。我国的粮食安全形势不容乐观,现在是和平时期,我们正在开足马力生产粮食,巨额的粮食缺口可以通过进口来弥补。“七连增”的丰年尚且如此,如果发生战争或者世界性的饥荒,中国老百姓吃饭的事会变得怎么样,这才是我始终挥之不去的一块心病。
 
中国农业:长期粮食不能自给
Chinese agriculture:No self-sufficiency in grain for a long time
Among the economic sectors in our country, agriculture is the most important and the weakest link. One indisputable fact is that our country will be in no self-sufficiency in grain for a long time to come. In 2010, our grain output was 546 million tons, 34 million tons more than the figure in 1998, 512 million tons. However, during the past 12 years, the population in our country has increased by at least 120 million, making the contradiction between grain supply and demand even more prominent. According to the report in “ People ' s Daily ” , in 2010, our country imported 5.71million tons of grain or grain flour, 54.8 millon tons of soybean and 6.87 million tons of edible vegetable oil which was equivalent to 40.41 million tons more imported soybean calculated at 17% as the oil yield. Added up together, the total grain import equaled 100.92 million tons in 2010. In 2010, the amount of grain exported was not much. We used to be an important corn export country and we exported 16 million tons in 2003 and 8 million tons in 2004. In 2010, however, we imported 1.6 million tons of corn and became a net corn import country. We were one an important rice export country and we exported about 1 million tons every year, but we imported 0.6 million tons of rice from Vietnam in 2010. At the same time, we also imported a considerable amount of wheat from Canada , the US and Australia . According to “ China Daily ” , China will restore the import of beef from America and open the market of beef and sea food to Argentina and Norway from 2011. If the self sufficiency rate of grain is 90% in our country, then we will have 134 million people, which is equivalent to a Japan or Russia, relying on imported food. The grain security situation in our country is not optimistic. We are now in a time of peace, and we are producing grain at full capacity and the huge grain shortage can be made up by imported grain. Things stand like this even though we have had an increased harvest for seven years in a row. What would happen to the common folks of the Chinese if a war or worldwide famine breaks out? This has been the trouble bothering me all the time.
 
 
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