F-030 土业园地 （第030期） 2010.1.11
Field for Artificial Soil Technology（AST）（№030）
作者：李鹏飞 Author：Li Pengfei January 11, 2010
My Web：www.tuyelt.com Telephone Number：13043864167
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人造土壤技术的可行性
The feasibility of AST
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| 一项技术具有合理性、必然性之后，还必须具有现实性才能变成现实。所谓现实性就是说我们有没有足够的经济能力去实施，值不值花那么多的资金去搞人造土壤，去搞人造土地。因为这项工程实在是太大了，在今后200年内，平均每年要拿出1万亿元人民币去造20亿亩土地，每年光是原料粉磨量就在50亿吨以上，这项工程所需劳动力不会少于1亿人。那么，1万亿元人民币究竟是个什么概念呢?它是我国目前国内生产总值(GDP)的1/10，相当于目前国家税收的50%，相当于5个三峡工程的投资，或者说相当于美国年度军费的1/3。实事求是地讲，在我国的现阶段，花这么大的代价去启动人造土壤工程，的确是不可能的，这在情理之中。但是，20年之后，我国的经济实力将发生很大的变化，国内生产总值要翻两番，可以达到40万亿元人民币，1万亿元只是国内生产总值的1/40。那时的税收至少可以翻两番，有望达到8万亿元，1万亿元则相当于20年后国家税收的12.5%。再看得远一些，20年之后到200年，我们的经济实力要翻几番，大概没有人能计算出来。所以说，我们利用本世纪前20年的时间，把人造土壤技术准备好，等20年后条件具备时再全面推广，这就是人造土壤技术的现实性之所在。 |
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人造土壤技术的可行性
The feasibility of AST
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| One technology must have its practicability to become real after its rationality and inevitability. The so called feasibility means whether we have enough economic capability to carry it out or whether it is worth spending so much money to make artificial soil and artificial land. The project is really a huge one. In the next 200 years, RMB?￥1000 billion/year will be spent on making 2 billion mu land. The material powder needed will be 5 billion tons each year, which will take no fewer than 0.1 billion people. What on earth does the RMB?￥1000 billion mean to China? It equals 1/10 of China’s GDP or 50% of the tax revenue of China or the investment for 5 Three-Gorges projects or 1/3 of America’s annual military expenditure. Speaking matter-of-factly, at the present stage in China, it is not possible to start an artificial soil project at such a high cost, which is reasonable. However in 20 years time, our country’s economic power will change greatly with the GDP quadrupled to reach RMB?￥40000 billion and RMB?￥1000 billion is 1/40 of GDP. By then, the tax revenue can at least be doubled and it is expected to be RMB?￥8000 billion and RMB?￥1000 billion equals 12.5% of the national tax revenue in 20 years times. To look a little further into the future, 20 years later to 200 years later, no one can predict how many times our economic power will be increased. Therefore we prepare the artificial soil technology in the first 20 years of this century and then extend it fully after conditions are in place 20 years later, which is the feasibility of artificial soil technology. |
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