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F-085 土业园地 (第 085 期) 2011.1.31
Field for Artificial Soil Technology AST (№ 085 )
作者:李鹏飞 Author Li Pengfei January 31, 2011
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人造耕地在经济上是否划算
Economic feasibility of ACL
    在 200 年内造 20 亿亩耕地,总投资 200 万亿元人民币 ( 按照 2000 年币值计算 ) , 耕地使用寿命设计为 1 万年。这样 高昂的代价和巨大的付出值不值得。我说值得,其理由如下:
    1) 、能从根本上解决中国四大问题,即粮食自给、环境保护、水资源短缺、数亿劳动力就业。
    2) 、使中国真正走上了循环发展的道路。 为了子孙后代安宁,我们造成的问题,还是由我们着手解决。
    3) 、仅算一笔经济账, 假设我国每年需要进口粮食 1 亿吨,国际粮价为 500-1000 美元/吨,按 200 年计算就是 10-20 万亿美元,按 1 万年计算就是 500-1000 万亿美元。谁能保证 200 年后 中国粮食自给。说不定, 200 年后美国也要进口粮食。
 
人造耕地在经济上是否划算
Economic feasibility of ACL

2 billion mu cultivated land will be made at the total cost of RMB ¥ 200 trillion within 200 years (calculated per the currency value in 2000) while the service life of the ACL is designed to be 10,000 years. Is it worthwhile at such a high cost and the amount of efforts involved? I would say yes based on the reasons as follows. 1) The four problems in China can be completely solved, i.e. self-sufficiency in grain, environmental protection, water resource shortage and employment for millions of people.2) China will embark on the road towards cyclic development. We will solve the problems created by ourselves for the benefits of our offspring. 3) Let's make such a calculation. Suppose we need to import 0.1 billion grain each year at the international grain price of $500-1000/t. Then it will be $10-20 trillion for a period of 200 years and $500-1000 trillion for 10,000 years. Who can guarantee the self-sufficiency in grain in China in 200 years? It could also be a possibility that the US may need to import grain in 200 years.

 
 
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